Taking stock in Poland: A million new clients next year
Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev
October 2025
A breath of fresh air
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Arriving in Poland was quite a change from the ever-sunny Dubai and its current mild autumn heat of "only" +37°C – the weather in Warsaw was quite fresh at +7°C, albeit the yellowish seasonal colors of the city's beautiful leafy parks surely brought us a lot of joy.
The local stock market has gone up nearly 50% in USD this year on the back of greater trading volumes due to large foreign money inflows amid significant weakening of the dollar and high valuations in the US. On this research trip, we met with the direct beneficiaries of this increased trading activity and learned more about the local economy we hadn't explored much before.
​Working in a taxi on our way to company meetings in Warsaw
Growing clients like no tomorrow
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We met with the CFO of a $2b online brokerage headquartered in Warsaw, which is building a trading super app for international retail investors.
After growing earnings at an impressive annualized 27% since IPO in 2016, the firm is now focused on rapidly expanding its client base through higher marketing spend to compete with the likes of Robinhood: it added 500k clients last year (56% annual growth in total clients), and is on track to add another 700-800k this year (57% growth) and a million new clients next year (45% growth). This highly substantial client base expansion will greatly support earnings growth in the future. The management of the company – which thrives on volatility – is currently seeing an abnormally strong trader demand not only for equities and options but also for crypto products and is working on delivering appropriate solutions.
The stock still trades at an LTM P/E below 10x, while its closest $3b peer listed in the US trades at 34x – looks like there is a "Poland discount" that needs to be closed!
Meeting with the CFO of a $2b online securities trading platform
Discounted cash flows at the stock exchange
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We also met with the CEO of the local stock exchange, itself a $650m listed entity responsible for processing the intensified trading flows in Polish securities.
Despite boasting recent earnings growth of over 20%, the company remains cheap at LTM P/E valuation of 12x (vs 24x for the peers) and EV/EBITDA of 9x (vs 14x), resulting in a high dividend yield of 6% (vs 3%). The CEO is working hard on closing the "Poland discount" not only by launching new products and a proprietary trading system, but also through improvements in investor relations.
As a matter of (fun) fact, the transparent modern building of the stock exchange has won numerous architectural awards, and its impressive escalator spanning three floors used to be the longest escalator in Poland (or so we were told).
Meeting with the CEO of the local stock exchange
Taking an escalator to success
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In a way, the country's ex-longest escalator at the stock exchange epitomized the massive economic feat that Poland has achieved since 1991 (a year when its first free post-socialist parliamentary elections took place): thanks to efficient market reforms, large foreign investment, and EU membership benefits, its GDP increased nearly 7x, making it the fastest-growing sizable country in Europe in the past three decades. Icing on the cake: this September, Poland reached a status of a trillion-dollar economy!
We believe Poland can continue its upward economic trajectory if it further increases investment in research and development (R&D) and thus provides more value creation opportunities for its well-educated population.
Observing the fruits of the Polish economic miracle in Warsaw
Bringing pierogi to Dubai
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We enjoyed meeting hard-working, optimistic, and infinitely proud Polish people, and spending time in Warsaw – a great capital city with a lot of green spaces, well-designed buildings, airy cafes, and wide streets: it seemed to be an exceptionally livable place.
What we saw on the ground made us think that Poland is barely an emerging market anymore: it appeared wealthier, cleaner, more modern and much more efficient than some of the "developed" markets.
On this refreshing trip, we liked eating the delicious comforting Polish food so much that we ended up buying frozen pierogi dumplings as well as ptasie mleczko (“bird's milk”) chocolates at the highly functional Frederic Chopin airport to bring home and share with our families. We certainly would like to come back to Poland – for more pierogi, more great company meetings, and for a Chopin music concert too.
Do zobaczenia, Poland – see you later!
